Blind faith


It seems like there is a blind faith in the accuracy of the swab tests. When only 3% were infected by non-symptomatic infected persons, this was not questioned. If the specificity was 97%, this is exactly what we would expect if there was absolutely no  Infection from non-symptomatic persons

 

It seems like nobody thinks of doing statistically significant testing. Even with a 99% accurate test there is a 95% confidence interval that would have to be exceeded if we should draw any conclusions from tests like this. 

 

A 3% positive test rate with any normally specific good test, would not in anyway mean that we could say that it was larger than zero.  BMJ  Suggests 95% as a reasonable specificity. 

 

That means that five out of 100 tests are false positives. They seem to have Covid but they don’t.  Is we cannot be sure that the infection rate from non symptomatic individuals is larger than 0 then there is absolutely no justification for lockdown of healthy people, masks etc

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